Wednesday, February 3, 2010

A T L

By and large, most people assume that the Lakers and Cavaliers are the top two teams in the league almost without question. Though the designation of the singular number one team will often switch between them, they are generally accepted as being the best teams featuring the game's two best players in Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. But from there, it gets interesting as the race for the NBA's third best team is very competitive, and that rank is very much up in the air. Orlando, Boston, Denver and Dallas can all make potential claims to the position, as perennial powerhouse San Antonio has had a bit of a down year this time around.

But I believe that not one of these teams can make the best claim to the spot as the NBA's third best team in the 2009-2010 season. My pick is one that not a lot of people are talking about in the national media, at least not as much as Dallas or Denver, and that is flying under the radar a little bit. I believe that, at this point in time, the NBA's third best team is the Atlanta Hawks. This season has been one where every team has shown certain weaknesses, even those at the very top. Thus, rather than making the case against all those other teams and showing why they're flawed, I want to instead focus on why the Hawks are better or "less flawed" than everyone else. This is going to involve a little statistical analysis, so stick with me...

The Hawks have quite a few good players, but no transcendent players like those other teams have. There is no Dirk or Carmelo or Dwight Howard or Paul Pierce and/or Kevin Garnett combo on the Hawks. Despite this lack of a true focal point that exists in one singular player, there is a consistency to the Hawks' lineup that is unmatched in the league right now. One of the statistics that best reflects this are their +/- numbers. Here is, according to NBA.com, what exactly the +/- numbers mean:
The AutoTrader.com +/- stat shows the power of teamwork. It's a way of showing the best-engineered/best combination of players on the court. The +/- stat is a statistic that looks at the point differential when players are both in and out of the game, to see how the team performs with various combinations. The +/- stat can look at a variety of combinations including the best two player, three player and even five player combinations for each game.
Looking over the +/- combinations for this season, the Hawks are responsible for many of the top combos. In terms of two player combinations, the Hawks make up almost half of the top ten, with pairings of Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith and Al Holford. Only the Lakers can compete with the Hawks on this level. The Hawks also possess the top four "3-player" combinations as well as having the top "4-player" combo and fourth and fifth ranked "5-player" combinations. The Hawks also rank in the top 10 in John Hollinger's assist ratio statistic, with 15.5% of their possessions resulting in an assist, as well as having the fourth ranked offense in terms of efficiency according to Hollinger's calculations (which are way too complicated for me to explain here). This is due, in part, to their care for the basketball, as they have the lowest turnover ratio of any team in the league this year, which speaks to the smart and careful play of veteran PG Mike Bibby. What is amazing, and speaks to how well the Hawks play as a unit rather than a collection of players, is that Bibby and SG Joe Johnson each average about the same number of assists per game. Their game is not predicated on the point guard getting the offense going, as the shooting guard can get in the act as well and that reflects a great deal of depth and consistency to their offensive approach.

Where the Hawks are a little bit weak is on the defensive end. The Hawks give up 97 points per game, which is middle of the pack but for a contending team that's a little bit higher than you would like to see. They also rank fairly low according to Hollinger's Defensive Rebound Rate statistic and in the overall Rebound Rate category. Marvin Williams, the SF from North Carolina, underperforms a little bit and that seems like it would hinder their defensive performance a little bit. But what they lack in terms of size and defensive performance they make up for with offensive depth. The Hawks have Jamal Crawford coming off the bench, as he has made his presence known and is a contender for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. Crawford is their 2nd leading scorer, with 17.5 points per game coming off the bench while only playing 30 minutes per game. Joe Johnson puts up only 4 more points on average while playing 7 more minutes than Crawford. In addition, the Hawks have a potentially solid and explosive young point guard in Jeff Teague on the bench as well as Maurice Evans and Zaza Pachulia to take up minutes so the starters can rest.

While there are some concerns about their defense, and I think the back end of their bench is a little thin, I think their offense (and their offensive efficiency) as well as the strength of their top 6 players make the Atlanta Hawks the NBA's third best team heading into the All-Star Break. Above all, I like the cohesion of this team, as it is clearly one where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The other teams in the conversation, Orlando or Dallas or Denver or Boston, may have the better singular players, but Atlanta frequently puts out the best combinations of players and players that can flourish when they are put together on the court. They might not have the best players who, as individuals, perform the best but the group of players they have together collectively perform about as well as anyone else in the league.

1 comment:

  1. What will be interesting come playoff time is if they can overcome their underdog mentality. The Hawks are legit, but the front office, the fans, and the players are well aware of the recent futility in Atlanta. They have showed signs of becoming a team to be reckoned with in the East this year, specifically stopping the skid against the Celtics with a season sweep. This is all gravy, but my money is on the Celtics in a head-to-head playoff series, despite the Hawks' regular season dominance. They have veteran leadership in Bibby, and the majority of the team has recent playoff experience, but winning when it counts is a whole different ballgame (read, Sharks early playoff exits). If I need two free throws hit with five seconds left of a game 7, I'm taking Ray Allen or Paul Pierce over Joe Johnson or Marvin Williams. This isn't to say the Celtics are the favorite to win the East, its just an illustration of the obstacles that the Hawks will need to conquer in order to take the next step.

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