TB's Super Bowl 44 Prediction

All right, it's that time of the year (or at least the sports year). The Super Bowl is upon us and this year in Miami the New Orleans Saints will be facing the Indianapolis Colts for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Before I get into what I think about the game itself, I need to go through and talk about the championship games and why the Colts and Saints are playing in the Super Bowl.




The first championship game was for the AFC, and the New York Jets traveled to Indianapolis to play the Colts. The Jets were everyone's favorite surprise team, having just knocked off the Chargers (a team a lot of people had going to the Super Bowl) and coached by the gregarious and ever-quotable Rex Ryan. But even though a lot of people liked the Jets and wanted them to make it to the big game, most people didn't think they could stop Indy. I mean, yeah they had a great defense but they were going up against Peyton Manning. Well, in the first half, the Jets showed they belonged in this game and went into halftime with the lead. In the first quarter, the Jets sacked Peyton Manning twice and held the vaunted Colts offense scoreless (though the Jets didn't score either). Then in the second quarter, after the Colts made a 25 yard field goal to go up 3-0, Jets QB Marc Sanchez found Braylon Edwards for an 80 yard TD pass to go up 7-3. The Jets added another TD and FG, after the Colts kicked another field goal and had a 17-6 lead with around two minutes left in the first half. But the Colts next two drives proved to be back-breakers for the Jets. Manning drove the Colts down the field at the end of the first half and scored a TD on a 16 yard pass to Austin Collie, making the halftime score 17-13. Then, at the start of the third quarter, Manning once again got the Colts into the end zone on a 4 yard TD pass to Pierre Garcon. With that score, the Colts took the lead and never looked back. Manning would add another TD pass to Dallas Clark and Matt Stover would add one more field goal for a final score of 30-17 in favor of the Colts.

Though the Jets were able to get pressure on Manning early in the game, he was able to adapt and ended up with a great statistical performance: 26-39, 377 yds and 3 TDs. Pierre Garcon had the best day of any Colts WR, pulling down 11 catches for 151 yards and a TD. The Colts defense played well, shutting down the Jets rushing game as Shonn Greene only had 41 rushing yards (before leaving the game due to injury) while Thomas Jones only ran for 42 yards. Sanchez played well, going 17-30 with 257 yds and 2 TDs to 1 INT. While this is a solid stat line, especially for a rookie QB, that is not the way that the Jets are going to win. Between the inability of Greene or Jones to get anything going on the ground, the lack of pressure on Manning after the first quarter and the fact that they lost the time of possession battle, things did not bode well for the Jets and thus Indy pulled out a game that was close in the first half but saw them pull away in the second.

The late game was in New Orleans, and the NFC Championship game featured Drew Brees and the Saints against the Minnesota Vikings and QB Brett Favre. This game was unlike the AFC Championship game, as it was almost a "pick 'em" and you could make very good cases as to why either team would win. The game proved to be just as evenly matched as it seemed on paper, as the two teams went into the half tied at 14 and both offenses showed just how explosive they could be. The game went back and forth throughout the second half, as Drew Brees and Brett Favre traded blows and scores before the Vikings got the ball with about two minutes to go with an opportunity to win the game as they drove into field goal range for kicker Ryan Longwell. But then Vikings HC Brad Childress made some very questionable calls, the Vikings were penalized for having 12 men in the huddle and then Brett Favre, having to try to throw the ball to move back into field goal range, through across his body on the run (a BIG no-no) and the Saints promptly intercepted the ball to force the game into overtime. The Saints won the toss, moved into field goal range (with the help of a few questionable calls, I won't lie) and Saints kicker Garrett Hartley drilled the 40 yard field goal to win the game and send the New Orleans Saints to the Super Bowl.

This was a game that the Saints won not because they played better (though they didn't play poorly) but because the Vikings could not seize opportunity. The Vikings fumbled the ball 6 times, losing 3 of them as well as throwing 2 INTs, which included that incredibly costly one at the end of the game. In addition to this, the Saints defense completely battered Favre to a degree that many of us had not seen. It was clear that Favre was not at full strength throughout the game and the effects of the Saints pass rush clearly began to show. Adrian Peterson had a solid day running the football, with 122 yards and 3 TDs, though he had a tendency to put the ball on the turf (though he didn't lose any fumbles). The Saints did a good job containing the Vikings main receiving weapon in Sidney Rice as he only had 43 yards and a TD, while Bernard Berrian had 9 receptions for 102 yards (though with one fumble). Drew Brees did throw for 3 TDs for the Saints, but only had 197 passing yards. No Saints receiver had more than 50 yards, but Brees did find 6 different players for multiple catches. The Saints rushing attack wasn't at its best for this game, as Pierre Thomas only had 61 yards and a TD while all other rushers were held to single digits. The key to this game was the physicality of the Saints defense. Though they didn't have a statistically dominant performance, they continuously and relentlessly hit Brett Favre. The Saints physicality, along with the Vikings' propensity to turn the ball over and not seize the moment, kept the Saints in the game and put them in a position to win it in overtime.

Now we move onto the Super Bowl, which will feature two of the most prolific offensives in the league. In addition, something that is problematic for me as a viewer who isn't a fan of either of these teams, is that I can fairly easily root and be happy for either team. On the one hand, I can appreciate the great and what I call "technical" prowess of Peyton Manning. I know some people don't really like Peyton Manning for whatever reasons, but I'm not one of them. But on the other hands, we have the New Orleans Saints and I know I don't need to discuss why I would want to see them with. In addition to the team finally breaking free of its losing legacy, the city underwent the horrors of Hurricane Katrina and was able to rebuilt to make it to this point. The Saints have come to represent New Orleans, specifically post-Katrina New Orleans, and to see them win the Super Bowl after suffering all that would be nothing short of amazing and a truly good thing for the city and its population.

But now we need to get into the real nitty-gritty and take a look at how these two teams match up on the field. As I said, both of these teams boast electric and explosive offenses, particularly through the air. Each team averages around 280 passing yards per game, and have the second (Indy) and fourth (New Orelans) ranked passing offenses in the NFL. The Saints also put up the most points per game at 31.9 while the Colts score almost 26 points per game. The Saints feature Drew Brees, one of the greatest free agent signings ever, at QB while the Colts have 2009 NFL MVP Peyton Manning calling the plays. All right, you get the idea; both of these teams have great offenses and great QBs and they will play a big, big role in determining the outcome of this Super Bowl

Also, both of these teams have similar weaknesses, namely problems on the defensive side of the ball. Each team ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of total defense, with the Saints giving up more through the air (235 yard per game) while the Colts are susceptible to strong rushing attacks (giving up 126.5 yards per game on the ground). Both teams have, in the playoffs, worked to dispel these labels as the Colts have bottled up big time running backs like Ray Rice for Baltimore and Greene and Jones for the Jets. Meanwhile, the Saints did a good job slowing down Kurt Warner and the Cardinals though they had troubles with Favre and the Vikings. One thing the Saints do well on defense is create turnovers, as they have the third-most interceptions in the league as Darren Sharper tied for the league lead in INTs with 9, as well as sacking the opponent's QB 35 times this season.

The Colts defense is also strong in certain areas, namely in terms of scoring defense. Though they give up a lot of yards, they don't give up a lot of points (19.2 per game, which is in the top 10 in the league). Each team also boasts prolific pass rushers, as the Colts feature Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis while the Saints have Will Smith. Freeney has become one of the biggest storylines of this Super Bowl, as it was revealed he suffered from a bad ankle sprain and might not play. Even if he does play, he won't be at 100% and that should make things a little easier for Jermon Bushrod and the Saints offensive line, but not totally easy as they will still have to deal with Mathis, LB Gary Brackett and CB Kelvin Hayden. Even if Freeney isn't as his best, they will make it hard for Brees to find Marques Colston and Devery Henderson as well as his TE Jeremy Shockey. That said, the Saints have a few weapons on defense as Jabari Greer will do his best to take Reggie Wayne out of the game and LB Jonathan Vilma will try to disrupt Manning and the Colts offense as best he can.

But when it comes to making my prediction, I'm interested in two things. The first is the aforementioned injury to Freeney and the second is the Saints ability to run the football. Though I don't believe the Colts defense will completely fall apart with Freeney at less than 100%, I do think it will make their defense slightly less effective. Even though it might be a small step back, a great QB like Brees can take advantage of that. Having Freeney a little banged up will give Brees that extra split-second to make a play. The second point, about the Saints ability to run the football, is one that is flying completely under the radar. The Saints featured the 6th ranked rushing attack in the NFL this season, while the Colts finished dead last in that category. It gets lost because of the explosive passing game, but Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and, yes, Reggie Bush are all good running backs and can make things happen on the ground. This, coupled with Indy's admittedly suspect rushing defense, leads me to believe that Sean Payton will create a game-plan for the Saints offense that tries to exploit this. Though we always think of Brees and the passing game, the Saints are a very balanced offensive team and can run the football well.

To wrap this up, I think this will be a very exciting Super Bowl with lots of points scored. Manning and Brees will both play spectacularly and I don't think either defense will be able to stop these QBs. I think Sharper will make one big play, finding a way to intercept Manning, which is probably one of the toughest things to do. But other than that, I don't see the Saints defense having any kind of answer for Manning, as he will probably hit 300 yards and 2-3 TDs. Freeney will be slowed down enough and won't be able to have as big an effect on the game as he would like. This will allow Brees to find either Henderson or Colston for a big play for a TD. But what I'm expecting to see is a heavy dose of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. The Colts defense will have to play for the pass (it's Drew Brees, you HAVE to watch for the pass first) and that will give the underrated Saints RBs room to run. Though it won't be about ball-control in the same way it is with a team like the Jets, I think the Saints will try to control the clock on the ground a little bit and keep Manning on the sidelines for as long as they can. But no one is going to pull away in this one, not with both of these offenses, and it will probably be close going into the fourth quarter. And even though the whole world seems to think the Colts are a mortal lock, I think the Saints have a little too much "team of destiny" about them. People talk about how this might be like San Francisco- San Diego in 1994, but the Saints are MUCH better than that San Diego team. These teams are more evenly matched that a lot of people realize or want to admit. Now I'm not saying that Brees is Manning's equal as a QB, but each team's positives and negatives are about equal and I like the Saints ability to (relatively) control the clock with their ground game.

But the main reason I'm leaning towards the team from the Big Easy is for something totally intangible and inexplainable. After watching that NFC Championship Game, this isn't just some plucky explosive offense that got lucky in going to the Super Bowl. I don't want to talk about the Katrina devastation in New Orleans too much, but I think these players realize this would be very special to a city in need of something special. Call it whatever you want-- mystique, karma, destiny, magic-- but I think the Saints have it on their side. It will be close, it will be exciting, there will be many points scored, and I wouldn't be surprised if Indianapolis ended up winning, but I like New Orleans to win Super Bowl 44.

Also, I will be making this gumbo recipe in my crockpot for the Super Bowl party I'm throwing. I'll be sure to report how all that turns out. But please let me know what you think-- Did I get it right? Am I totally off-base? Who are you rooting for in Super Bowl 44?